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Crime Trends

Published: Thu, 22 Sep 2016

Crime is up almost 15%, according to the Major Cities Chiefs Association which recently issued its crime figures for the first half of 2016. In four out of five violent crime categories, including murder, the most trustworthy measure.  This general trend has been consistent over the last 2 years.  The big question now is whether this is a crime spike, or that start of another more enduring cycle.  As you can see from the chart below, if we step back we are actually in a crime 'Trough', similar to one we saw in the 50s and late 60s.

So are we embarking on another crime wave?  Experts have attributed crime waves historically to 4 basic factors: migration, explosion of youth population, weaknesses in the machinery of law enforcement, and gangs.  This article basically concludes that we seem to measure up pretty well in these four categories, indicating that another sustained wave, that historically lasts for 25 years, is not likely.  Having said that, there doesn't seem to be any obvious explanation for why we have seen this crime spike recently.

Unfortunately we have an uneasy period in front of us as we continue to monitor this troubling trend.  In the meantime, there is nothing we can do other than making sure we take the proper measures to keep ourselves and our families safe.

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